Institution: The short-term risk of US CPI data is still skewed upward.

Jin10 data reported on July 22, Columbia Threadneedle Investments senior economist Anthony Willis pointed out that although the inflation situation in the United States is relatively mild, the current level is still significantly above the Fed's 2% target, and short-term risks still tend to be on the upside. He stated: "Current data will cause the Fed to maintain a 'wait-and-see' attitude during the release of the July and August CPI data, until the next interest rate meeting on September 17." By then, the Fed should be able to more clearly assess the transmission effects of tariffs on inflation and obtain more corroborative data indicating labor market weakness. Willis believes that inflation is likely to approach 3%, but given the dual mandate, the Fed may still consider it necessary to cut interest rates later this year.