Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data Analysis

Fear and Greed Index

The current Fear and Greed Index is 74, indicating that the market is in a greedy state with high investment sentiment. The index saw a significant drop in June, falling to below 30 at the beginning of July, which was the lowest point of the year, and then there was a noticeable rebound.

Bitcoin Futures Market Dynamics

The Bitcoin futures positions of a certain trading platform have been continuously increasing since July 5, and began to decrease on July 23. After an important figure spoke at the Bitcoin conference on July 28, the position volume rose again.

Market logic changes indicate that after July 5th, funds are bullish, and when approaching the resistance level on July 23rd, some funds reduced their positions. After an important speech, Bitcoin briefly fell but quickly rebounded, indicating limited selling pressure, and some funds re-entered the market with a bullish outlook for the future.

Leverage Fund Short Position

Last week (from July 16 to 23), the number of short contracts in leveraged funds increased by 103, equivalent to 515 bitcoins. This increase in the indicator usually means that arbitrage funds are also accumulating in the spot market, and when the indicator drops to a turning point, it may signal a rising market after short positions are closed.

Bitcoin Margin Long Position on a Trading Platform

After the long positions reached a low point on March 16 (corresponding to the market high), they began to accumulate positions. Currently, the positions are still at a high level, but the growth trend has slowed down.

Stablecoin Supply Oscillator(SSRO)

SSRO hit a bottom on July 9, falling below the lows of August and September last year, indicating a sharp decline in market participation. However, this also formed a turning point, leading to a subsequent rebound. This relatively low level provides favorable conditions for small-cap tokens to rebound.

Changes in the Proportions of Bitcoin Long-term and Short-term Holders

Long-term holders continued to sell during the main uptrend from December 2023 to April 2024. Since April, Bitcoin has entered a wide range of fluctuations, and long-term holders have stopped selling, tending to continue holding.

According to the bull market patterns of 2017 and 2021, it is expected that there will be two declines in the proportion of long-term holders holding coins, with the second decline usually being greater than the first.

Bitcoin Long-term Holders Unrealized Net Losses

In the past two cycles, this indicator has entered the range above 0.75. In the current market cycle, this indicator has not yet reached this level and is still operating in a lower range. It is expected that this indicator should enter the high range and operate for a period of time before potentially forming the top of this market cycle.

Unrealized Net Gains and Losses of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders

In a bull market, when this indicator is close to 0 or below 0, it often forms a phase bottom. There were two instances below 0 in 2023, and there have already been two in 2024. From the end of June to early July, this indicator was below 0, and on July 15 it recovered to above 0. Referring to last September's trend, a major upward trend may form subsequently.