The market greed index is rising, and the behavior changes of long-term holders are attracting attention.

Market Sentiment and Holdings Analysis

Recently, the market investment sentiment has been high, with the fear and greed index reaching 74, which is in the greed range. At the beginning of July, this index had fallen to its lowest point of the year, followed by a significant rebound.

In the futures market, since July 5, CME Holdings have continuously increased until a reduction in positions on July 23. After July 28, the open interest increased again. This reflects a change in market sentiment: at the beginning of July, funds were bullish, then some funds reduced their positions near the resistance level in mid-month, followed by new funds entering the market.

The leveraged fund's short positions increased by 515 BTC last week. Typically, when this indicator rises, arbitrage funds on the spot side also increase their holdings. When the indicator drops to a turning point, it often signals an upward trend after short positions are closed.

The long holdings of a trading platform started to accumulate after hitting the bottom on March 16, and are currently still maintained at a high level, but the growth has slowed down.

Stablecoin Supply and Holdings Analysis

The stablecoin supply oscillator ( SSRO) hit a bottom on July 9, falling below the lows of August-September last year, indicating a sharp decline in market participation. However, this also marks a turning point, with the indicator starting to rebound from the low. This relatively low position provides better rebound conditions for altcoins.

The changes in the holdings ratio of long-term holders of BTC show that during the main upward wave from December 2023 to April 2024, long-term holders continued to sell. Since April, BTC has entered a wide fluctuation range, and long-term holders have stopped selling and tend to continue holding.

Long-term holders have not realized a net gain or loss and are currently operating in the green zone, not yet entering the blue zone. It is expected that once this indicator enters the blue zone and operates for a period of time, it may form the peak of this round of market.

Short-term holders have experienced unrealized net losses below 0 twice in 2024. At the beginning of July, this indicator was below 0, and it recovered to above 0 on July 15. Referring to last September's trend, a main bullish market may form subsequently.

These indicators collectively reflect that market sentiment is gradually warming up, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the behavioral changes of long-term holders and the profit status of short-term holders to assess the sustainability of the market and potential turning points.