Crypto Market Weekly Report: Rebound Continues, Liquidity Recovery in Sight

Recently, the global financial markets, including the crypto market, have been significantly affected by the progress of trade negotiations. As the negotiations gradually enter the stage of reaching an agreement, market sentiment has noticeably improved.

This week, the US and UK reached a preliminary agreement on tariff issues, while Chinese and US trade representatives also completed their first public contact. These developments are seen as positive signals by the market, driving up the prices of risk assets. The S&P 500 index has recovered from the declines caused by trade frictions, and Bitcoin has performed even more strongly, rebounding significantly this week and approaching previous highs.

Driven by optimistic sentiment, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have also seen a significant rebound. Ethereum's weekly increase reached as high as 39.01%, marking the largest weekly increase in this cycle. Data shows that the altcoin season may have already begun.

The key issue right now is whether this round of Rebound can lead to a full recovery of market Liquidity, thereby driving a reversal in the market in the second quarter.

Policies and Macroeconomic Environment

The "Economic Prosperity Agreement" reached between the US and the UK is seen as a phased achievement in trade policy. The market believes that similar arrangements may serve as a reference model for other countries, and this assessment has boosted investor confidence.

Positive signals have also emerged from the China-U.S. trade negotiations. Both sides stated that they have "made substantive progress" after their first public contact in Switzerland. Although uncertainties still exist, the expectation of rationally resolving differences is strengthening.

Economic and employment data in April remained relatively stable, and the earnings reports of large technology companies generally met expectations, providing fundamental support for the stock market Rebound. The bond market remained stable, while gold prices fluctuated.

There have been significant breakthroughs at the state level in the United States regarding cryptocurrency policy. New Hampshire and Arizona have respectively passed bills allowing state governments to purchase or hold Bitcoin. This trend may influence policies in more states and even at the federal level.

Crypto Market Performance

Bitcoin continued to rise this week, with an increase of over 10.46%. Technically, Bitcoin has broken through several key moving averages and has returned above the medium to long-term upward trend line, showing strong upward momentum.

Currently, the next major resistance level Bitcoin faces is around $11,000. If it can break through this level, it is expected to challenge its all-time high.

It is worth noting that other cryptocurrencies have also seen a comprehensive rise this week, with Ethereum's weekly increase exceeding 39%. If this trend can continue, it may indicate that market liquidity is recovering.

Capital Flow

This week, stablecoins and Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large-scale inflow of funds again, with a total inflow of 944 million USD, providing strong support for the market. There were net fund inflows on 6 out of 7 trading days, reflecting investors' strong buying willingness.

At the same time, the on-exchange leverage ratio and borrowing rates have begun to rise, indicating that investors' risk appetite is increasing.

Market Sentiment and Selling Pressure

After the previous adjustments, the market's chip structure has been optimized, and the proportion of long-term holders has increased. Although prices continue to rise, selling pressure is gradually easing, which may indicate that short-term speculators have largely exited the market, leading to a heightened reluctance to sell.

As the price approaches $100,000, long-term holders are starting to slightly reduce their holdings, while new short-term investors are actively buying in. Notably, large investors ("sharks") have continued to increase their holdings by over 56,000 bitcoins this week.

Currently, short-term holders have an unrealized profit of just over 10%, and only 2% of the overall market is in a loss position. This relatively safe status creates favorable conditions for Bitcoin to break through previous highs.

Cycle Indicator

According to the cyclical indicators of a certain data platform, Bitcoin has re-entered a rebound phase, with a related indicator value of 0.75.