Three major US economic signals that may affect Bitcoin's trend this week: Powell's speech, initial jobless claims data, and PMI indicators.

This week, the three major economic signals from the United States may have a significant impact on the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). Although BTC remains above $118,000, the decline in dominance, whale selling, and uncertainty regarding Fed policy may indicate that the market is about to experience significant fluctuations. Whether Powell will resign, the initial jobless claims data, and the PMI for manufacturing and services will all be key points of focus.

Powell's Speech: Fed's Policy Outlook Draws Attention This Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver the opening speech at the banking conference, closely timed with the CPI announcement (up 2.7% year-on-year for June) and the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 30. The market is highly focused on his remarks, hoping to gauge whether the Fed will continue to keep interest rates unchanged, with the current probability as high as 95.3%.

However, political factors have also exacerbated uncertainty. The Trump administration continues to pressure Powell to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, the White House has also criticized the Fed for spending $2.5 billion on office building renovations and urged for an audit, potentially using the opportunity to push for his early resignation. The market generally believes that once Powell resigns or is dismissed, it could prompt a shift in Fed policy towards a more dovish stance, which would be good news for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Initial Jobless Claims: Employment Data May Stir the Market Again The initial jobless claims data to be released this Thursday will also draw significant attention. Last week, the number of applicants was 221,000, and the market expects a slight increase to 229,000 this week. As an indicator of the strength of the U.S. labor market, if this data is higher than expected, it may suggest employment weakness, which could increase expectations for interest rate cuts, thus being bullish for Bitcoin. Conversely, if the data continues to operate at low levels, showing a strong labor market, it will dampen market expectations for easing policies, which could be bearish for the crypto market.

PMI Data: Manufacturing and Services Sector Prosperity in Focus Also released on Thursday was the preview value of the July S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI. The June Services PMI was 52.9, slightly lower than May's 53.7; the Manufacturing PMI hit a three-year high of 52.9. The latest forecast indicates that the July Services PMI may rise to 53.2, while the Manufacturing PMI may slightly fall to 52.4. If the data performs strongly, it could boost traditional financial markets and attract funds out of Bitcoin; if the data is weak, it would further strengthen the market's bets on interest rate cuts, which would be beneficial for BTC.

Bitcoin price remains stable, but concerns arise from miners and whale selling pressure As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $118,286, with a 24-hour increase of 0.35%. Although the overall performance is stable, the BTC dominance rate is declining, and on-chain data shows that miners and Whales are reducing their Bitcoin holdings. Additionally, there are reports that the UK government may sell its held BTC, adding more uncertainty to the market.

Conclusion: The movements of Fed Chairman Powell, initial jobless claims data, and PMI indicators will be the three major highlights of the Bitcoin market this week. Any deviation in macroeconomic signals could trigger significant fluctuations in the market. For crypto investors, staying vigilant and responding flexibly will be the key strategy this week.