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April Crypto Market Review: Bitcoin Fluctuates, ETF in Focus, Hong Kong Approves Spot Fund
April 2024 Crypto Assets Market Review
Market Dynamics
The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility in April. The price of Bitcoin, after reaching a new high in March, underwent drastic fluctuations, plummeting over 5% to below $66,000 at the beginning of the month. The price fluctuated multiple times throughout the month, mainly influenced by macroeconomic factors and changes in market sentiment, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to global economic trends.
The derivatives market indicated this decline, and the decrease in the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts suggests an upcoming adjustment. The change in market sentiment makes this adjustment inevitable, and a significant liquidation occurred outside of U.S. ETF trading hours.
Changes in U.S. interest rate expectations may be another factor influencing the shift in BTC sentiment. This reminds us that while BTC is viewed as a "store of value", it remains sensitive to macroeconomic changes.
Throughout the month, BTC fluctuated between $73,000 and $60,000. This relative stability may stem from several factors, including the unexpected decline of the DXY dollar index. The weakening of the dollar has enhanced BTC's attractiveness, supporting its price.
Investor expectations for BTC halving may also affect market sentiment. However, this expectation was not realized, and the BTC price was not significantly affected.
Despite the slowdown, ETF inflows are still supporting the market. At the end of April, BTC was at the lower end of the price range, showing clear market weakness, which may trigger more interesting changes.
Crypto Assets Investment Product Innovation
One important development in April is the ongoing exploration of asset tokenization. The USD institutional-grade digital liquidity fund launched by BlackRock is represented by the $BUIDL token on Ethereum and is open only to accredited investors who meet the minimum investment amount. The main investments are in secure, income-generating assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, with dividends paid in $BUIDL. This demonstrates how blockchain can enhance the liquidity and accessibility of traditional financial assets.
The fund manages assets of over $375 million, highlighting the significant progress in the integration of physical assets and blockchain.
$BUIDL token is connected to the USDC smart contract pool, supporting instant redemption and continuous liquidity. Investors can convert $BUIDL to USDC at any time, benefiting crypto companies in managing large finances and providing a seamless way for quick access to funds.
Regulation and Regional Expansion
In April, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority approved Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, which is of great significance to the Asian market, especially Hong Kong. However, investors from mainland China are still restricted due to strict regulations. This involves three major investment groups, indicating that Crypto Assets are integrating into a broader financial ecosystem.
The State Bank of Baden-Württemberg in Germany has announced plans to provide Crypto Assets trading and custody services, showing a shift in the attitude of traditional conservative financial institutions towards Crypto Assets. LBBW focuses on integrating Crypto Assets services as part of its business model, reflecting a deeper application of blockchain in corporate finance.
Ethereum and Regulatory Challenges
The trend of Ethereum is similar to that of Bitcoin, but it faces more intense regulatory scrutiny. The SEC has yet to make a decision on the Ethereum spot ETF application, requiring public comments on the amendment, which reflects a cautious regulatory attitude and ongoing uncertainty.
Consensys sues the SEC challenging the decision to classify "ETH as a security". This could clarify the regulatory status of Ethereum and affect other Crypto Assets. A victory could impact market dynamics and boost investor confidence.
The lawsuit implies that the issuer assumes approval will eventually be granted.
Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin halving event will occur this month, and the miners' block reward will be halved. This will have a long-term impact on the network economy. Although there is no direct impact on prices observed, the reduction in rewards may lead to higher transaction fees, making miners more reliant on Gas profits. This is important for Bitcoin as a transaction network in the future, as high fees could reduce the attractiveness of small transactions. The development of Layer 2 networks helps balance the trade-off between security and cost.
Macroeconomic Environment
Gold and Crypto Assets
Gold in April remains in focus. Despite a decrease in holdings of the largest gold ETF in the United States, gold prices continue to rise. Asian gold ETFs see net inflows, contrasting with North America and Europe. Central banks continue to purchase gold, mainly for diversification and crisis hedging, rather than to move away from the dollar. This echoes the discussions in the Crypto Assets community about "finding dollar alternative payment options," reflecting the market's demand for reliable alternatives outside the conventional financial system.
Interest rate expectations and economic signals
In April, the U.S. financial markets are highly focused, as strong economic data suppresses expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. The U.S. economy may be more resilient than previously thought.
US Employment and FOMC
The U.S. employment data is receiving significant attention, with the ADP payroll suggesting a slight weakening in the labor market. Official employment statistics also indicate a softening, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.8%. At the FOMC press conference, Chairman Powell discussed ongoing inflation issues and interest rate strategies.
Government Bond Market and US Treasury
The Ministry of Finance's quarterly report reveals key financial strategies, detailing upcoming bond issuance plans and fiscal adjustments that directly impact market liquidity. Liquidity in the government bond market has decreased and volatility has increased since the end of 2021. In the second quarter, the Ministry of Finance expects borrowing to increase by $41 billion to $243 billion.
Global Perspective
Japan may intervene to support the yen, as the sudden rise of the yen coincided with a decline in the U.S. dollar index. South Africa is taking measures to regulate Crypto Assets, indicating an increased institutional interest in digital assets. Venezuela is facing difficulties in using USDT for oil transactions due to sanction risks.
Highlights of This Month
On-chain Analysis
Conclusion
April highlights the delicate balance of the global economy, as central banks respond to inflation and growth challenges, and markets adapt to regulatory changes and geopolitical uncertainties. Bitcoin prices remain stable but are still sensitive to economic indicators and investor sentiment. Hong Kong launches Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, broadening market access.
Potential driving factors for the positive trend in the Crypto Assets market: