Recently, the Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) market has shown a complex trend, which is worth investors' close attention. From a weekly perspective, although a bearish line that engulfed the previous two candlesticks appeared last week, it failed to break below the 50% position of the bullish line from the week of July 7, indicating that a typical evening star formation was not formed. At the same time, the trading volume has shown a characteristic of decreasing on the decline, and the overall bearish momentum has weakened. Therefore, we can expect that above the support range of 108,364 USD, Bitcoin is likely to continue to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern.

On the daily chart, on August 1st, Bitcoin broke through a consolidation range that lasted for 18 days and fell below a relatively steep upward trend line. However, the current price is in a dense trading area formed by the previous upward movement, which usually has strong support. Signs of a halt in the decline appeared on August 3rd, but the trading volume was relatively small, so we need to continue observing whether the subsequent Candlestick can show a volume increase and a halt in the decline signal when testing the support level again, to enhance the credibility of the halt.

From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has currently entered the mid to late stage of a bull market. Looking back at the past several waves of increases, we can find that each wave's growth has gradually narrowed: the first wave rose from $15,479 to $31,818, an increase of 105.56%; the second wave rose from $24,920 to $73,794, an increase of 131.93%; while the third wave rose from $49,577 to $108,364, an increase of only 46.85%. This trend indicates that although the current upward trend has not yet ended, the momentum for breaking new highs is gradually weakening.

Given that both time and space factors are approaching the end of the cycle, the future upside potential of Bitcoin may be limited. We expect that Bitcoin is likely to enter a consolidation phase at a high level. This phase is usually a critical period for major funds to create momentum and sell off. It is worth noting that the funds flowing out of Bitcoin are likely to gradually shift towards other mainstream cryptocurrencies led by Ethereum.

In summary, although the Bitcoin market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market is still worth following in the long run. Investors should remain patient, closely monitor market movements, and also pay attention to the development opportunities of other potential coins.