Market Observation Weekly Report【6.9 - 6.13】: Geopolitical Disturbances and Cautious Capital Resonance, Mainstream Tokens Fluctuate and Adjust, Market Builds Momentum at High Levels

Funding repair is limited, mainstream tokens are in a volatile consolidation

The global geopolitical situation is becoming increasingly turbulent, and market sentiment is fluctuating. Israel's attack on Iran has triggered a brief risk-averse sentiment, leading to a decrease in market volatility, while expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, causing investors to adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

The momentum of capital inflows is marginally warming up but lacks sustainability. ETFs have returned to a net inflow status, but the growth rate has slowed down. The growth rate of stablecoin issuance has dropped, and the premium of USDT has weakened, indicating that the willingness of funds to enter is not strong.

The trend of mainstream tokens is diverging, with Bitcoin's strong momentum waning and Ethereum adjusting again after a rebound. Bitcoin encounters resistance and pulls back after reaching a high, while Ethereum's rebound momentum weakens. Institutional investors and long-term holders continue to increase their holdings, and the market structure remains neutral to slightly strong.

The liquidity of small-cap coins has improved, but upward movement is hindered. The TOTAL2 index has rebounded but faced resistance and has pulled back again. The market capitalization share of small coins has stabilized and oscillated, on-chain activity has increased somewhat, but it still has not emerged from a weak position.

The market is currently at the end of a consolidation phase, and in the short term, it needs to wait for a breakthrough in funding. Investors should patiently observe whether the structure of small coins strengthens and look for signs of capital returning to mainstream tokens.

On a macro level, the conflict between Israel and Iran is limited to mutual missile and drone attacks, and the risk of a full-scale war is low. Oil prices have risen due to emotional fluctuations, US stocks have rebounded, and market volatility has decreased. The probability of a rate cut in July has increased, and the Federal Reserve needs to balance inflation with economic growth.

In terms of capital flow, ETFs saw an inflow of $2.8 billion this week, while stablecoins increased by $2.3 billion. The premium for over-the-counter stablecoins has risen. Bitcoin is in a fluctuating upward range, with stronger positions above $103,000. Ethereum's performance is weaker than Bitcoin, with funds continuing to flow back into Bitcoin. The number of active addresses on the Ethereum chain has increased, which may indicate a potential completion of the bottoming phase.

Overall, geopolitical risks mainly affect market sentiment, while the risk of substantial military escalation is relatively low. Institutional investors are increasing their holdings, and the circulation of coins is decreasing, which improves market stability. However, in the short term, the market is still driven by sentiment and remains highly volatile. It is recommended that investors maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, paying attention to changes in liquidity and breakthroughs at key technical levels.