2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the crypto market has experienced a strong surge. The price of Bitcoin has broken historical highs, invigorating the altcoin market, and currently, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin trends often begin when Bitcoin reaches its peak. The first round was Bitcoin's attempt to hit $69,000, and the next round may target $100,000. The next altcoin trend is expected to occur after Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, possibly in the first quarter of 2025. However, before that, the market may play out again in the second or third quarter of 2024.

Here are four scenarios that may occur in 2025:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins are rising broadly with a probability of 30-40% ( In 2025, the market rises steadily, with Bitcoin continuing to increase, driving altcoins to strengthen overall, reminiscent of the broad rally seen in the past two months.

Strategy: Choose outstanding altcoins to buy on dips.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, some altcoins rise ) 50-60% probability ( Recreate the market conditions of 2024, with increased volatility but an overall strong trend, requiring selective stock picking.

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for the next "get-rich-quick coin".

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally decline )20-30% probability (

Strategy: Reduce or clear out long-term underperforming altcoins.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins generally decline with a probability of 10-20% ) The market has peaked and is falling back.

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the new round of Bitcoin's historical high breakthrough may not take too long. Compared to 2024, the market's perception of Bitcoin has already changed. The new regime's rise to power has brought new attention to digital assets, helping to persuade more people to buy Bitcoin.

Overall, Bitcoin is expected to continue its strength in 2025. The situation for altcoins is similar but slightly different. The total market value of altcoins may replicate the trend of 2024, but the key lies in selection and timing. While there is optimism for 2025, the increase may take some time. In the absence of catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines.

As long as the bull market cycle has not ended, a bullish mindset should be maintained. It is unlikely that the dismal market conditions of the summer of 2024 will be repeated in 2025, but a consolidation period similar to the current one may occur. On-chain projects may experience significant fluctuations.

Conclusion:

• The rise in Bitcoin is expected to exceed 2024.
• Altcoins are rising overall, but the volatility may be greater than in 2024.

Risk Factors

Cycle Top Risk: Currently, we are not yet close to the cycle top, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle top is not a single event, but a range that we gradually approach.

Policy risk: After the new president takes office, the market will closely watch his attitude towards Bitcoin. Completely ignoring the Bitcoin reserve plan would be bearish, but it is more likely that the plan will be postponed. In this case, it looks bearish in the short term but remains bullish in the long term.

Supply Risk: The risk of a large amount of Bitcoin being concentrated in the hands of a few institutions always exists and needs to be closely monitored. If handled properly, supply shocks could also become buying opportunities.

Macroeconomic risk: The expected rate cut is limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve, which is beneficial for crypto assets. The main risk is that inflation may rise again, leading to interest rate hikes.

Investment Advice

1. AI track After experiencing several rounds of hype, the next wave may arrive soon. It is recommended to pay attention to niche areas such as application technology, Swarms, gaming, and consumer-level AI.

2. DeFi It is still an important track, but the investment difficulty is relatively high. The risk-reward ratio is not optimal. It is recommended to pay attention to leading projects such as AAVE, ENA, and Morpho.

3. Public Chain L1 may make a comeback, an overlooked area that contains opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to SUI, Hype, etc.

4. NFT and Game Tokens NFT tokens worth paying attention to include PENGU, Anime, etc. At the same time, keep an eye on game projects that will issue tokens soon.

5. Other tracks Emerging sectors such as data tokens, memes, DePIN, and ordinals are also worth paying attention to.

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A large company will enter the DePIN field through acquisition.
2. The market share of a certain trading platform will be surpassed by Bybit or OKX.
3. VR development drives the revival of metaverse tokens
4. ICOs are becoming popular again
5. There will be no altcoin boom on the Ethereum chain.
6. Sui reached a two-digit dollar price
7. Ethereum ETF approved, giving rise to more staking yield products
8. Famous artists use NFTs and tokens for fan engagement.
9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000
10. More public chain project founders resign
11. Base lost to other L1 competitors, while Solana maintained its advantage.