Ethereum has finally broken through the $4000 mark, making this price point the focus of global investors. This is the fourth time in eight years that it has approached this high level, and each time it comes close, it is accompanied by a significant pullback. In 2021, it experienced a 65% big dump, in 2024 there were two pullbacks exceeding 40%, and it also faced setbacks in July this year.

Currently, market participants are closely watching price trends, with both bulls and bears holding large positions. Bears hold positions worth approximately $677 million, while bulls have positions worth $1.247 billion, putting the market in a state of readiness. A price breakthrough above $4000 could trigger short covering, while a drop below $3800 may lead to long liquidations.

The behavior of large investors is more complex. An anonymous big player transferred $49 million worth of Ethereum to an exchange, seemingly preparing to cash out. Meanwhile, some institutions are purchasing $40.5 million worth of Ethereum over-the-counter, and a company is applying for $5 billion in financing, possibly to buy the dip. Retail investors face a dilemma: buying in worries about catching a falling knife, while not buying raises fears of missing out on the upward opportunity.

Technical analysts are focused on the intertwined signals of MACD death cross and RSI60, while fundamental analysts are paying attention to ETF fund inflows and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Historical data shows that the probability of breaking through the $4000 mark has increased to 85%, with target price levels potentially reaching $4200, $4800, or even $5500. However, the lesson from last December's similar selling pressure, which led to a 66% fall in Ethereum prices, still needs to be heeded.

Currently, the derivatives market's open interest has reached a historical high of $51.3 billion, with a daily liquidation volume of $260 million, of which 90% are short liquidations. The market is at a critical position and may trigger significant volatility.

Despite the uncertainty in the market, most opinions tend to be optimistic about the long-term development of Ethereum. If it can break through the historical high of 4877 USD, it may trigger a new round of strong gains. However, investors should remain alert to market risks and view this bull market rationally.